October 1, 2010

Not to throw a wet blanket on Nate Silver

He's orders of magnitude smarter than me.

But don't forget that just this past May, his projection model forecast a British Parliament comprised of 204 Labour seats and 103 Liberal Democrat seats. In fact Labour won 258 seats and the Lib Dems, 57.

That's an awfully wide miss.


Zach W. said...

Even the best are wrong from time to time. While Silver has Johnson having an 80% chance of winning, I'm still betting on Sen. Feingold to pull it out in a squeaker.

illusory tenant said...

That's an 80% chance of winning 50% plus one of the vote, by the way. Silver's device looks a lot worse than what it actually says.

Free Lunch said...

It's no surprise that he, along with most of the other pollsters, had a hard time with the outcomes of a reasonably strong third party and an unpopular party in power. Polling in the UK is rarely done by district, so the pollsters just adjust by the traditional ratio in each district.

krshorewood said...

I made the mistake last year on basing my Oscar picks on Nate's projections and got totally wiped out. Needless to say he didn't play this year.