April 6, 2011

Wisconsin SC projection still looking good

Update: Ashland County swings 'er to K-Burg

Notably, Ashland County is the former criminal-prosecuting stomping grounds of Gableman, J., and then of Sean "Starving on 170K" Duffy.

eta 1205 CST: Prosser cannot win the one remaining JeffCo precinct by enough to overcome KloJo's current lead. You heard it here first.

Note: JDP dropped nine points in JeffCo between 02/15 and 04/05.

Just call me Nate Silver, Jr.

According to the Associated Press, the Wisconsin Supreme Court votes not yet included in the tally are from the following counties:

Ashland 36-64 [eta 1030 CST 100%: 70-30 KloJo]
Crawford 42-58 [eta 1030 CST 100%: 59-41 KloJo]
Dane 31-69 [eta 1030 CST 100%: 73-27 KloJo]
Dunn 45-55 [eta 1030 CST 100%: 56-44 KloJo]
Jefferson 67-33 [eta 1030 CST: One precinct to go]
Juneau 59-41 [eta 1030 CST 100% 52-48 KloJo]
Milwaukee 54-46* [eta 1130 CST: 100% 57-43 KloJo]
Sauk 46-54 [eta 1030 CST 100%: 56-44 KloJo]
Taylor 56-44 [eta 1030 CST 100% 61-39 JDP)

All but Jefferson, Juneau, and Taylor counties — and the latter two are relatively small — are Kloppenburg country. Figures denote Prosser-Liberals from the February 15 primary. Note the asterisk beside MKE: As predicted by this here blog, KloJo would only win the Supreme Court if she could draw down Milwaukee County, which she lost in the primary by the same margin Prosser won the State.**

And indeed, Milwaukee County was the key for Atty. Kloppenburg, as she and her supporters turned it 57-43 to her favor during the general election campaign, with two of 486 precincts yet to count.

IOW I wasn't just guessing. Waukesha County could not save Prosser.

Turnout could have been better in MKE County, however, relative to the State. So a few more of you punks, thugs, and hippies*** out there yesterday and this sucker would have been in the books by now.

** And yes obviously I'm giving all of the three liberal candidates' primary vote to Kloppenburg. Some right-wing commentators (and elite DC pundit Dave Weigel, who should know better) reported the primary results as 55-25, Prosser-Kloppenburg, which is silly and pointless. All three of Prosser's challengers could rightfully be counted as one liberal bloc, as ideologically indistinguishable as they were.

*** Slobs also - sorry!


Pyrrho said...

I'm seeing on the AP that Jefferson still has an uncounted ward. Also, do you know if there is any info out there on which wards are still uncounted in Milwaukee County? Because there are parts of Milwaukee County that may not be Kloppenburg country. That will be the real wildcard, I think, because wards in some of the smaller counties can be pretty small.

Also I think that Kloppenburg will definitely make up some votes, I don't think it is a guarantee at this point that she can make up the current deficit.

illusory tenant said...

Whoops you're right, thanks. Fixing.

Pyrrho said...

AP is now showing Kloppenburg ahead with Ashland County all in.

illusory tenant said...

Somebody remind Sykes Ashland County is Gableman's old criminal-prosecuting stomping ground (and later Sean Duffy's).

Anonymous said...

9:47 am - Ashland Co. all-in and JK now leading by 160 votes. 10 scattered precincts still to report, at a glance, it looks like the outstanding precincts should net JK a couple hundred more votes, leaving it to DTP to request a recount.

illusory tenant said...

Yep exactly.

Pyrrho said...

Five left: 2 in Milwaukee (Cudahy I am hearing), 1 in Jefferson, 1 in Taylor, and 1 in Juneau. Kloppenburg is up by about 370, but Prosser should have the edge in each of those except Juneau.

illusory tenant said...

Sheesh. Could come down to one vote.

Anonymous said...

What you said. Highly unlikely that enough votes are out there (or big enough margins) to overcome the current ~450 vote margin (0.03%, incidentally).

So who else is reaching for Wis. Stat. 9.01 et seq. right about now?

Anonymous said...

It appears that Wisconsin is equally divided between those who want change and those who don't. What should Gov Walker do?

illusory tenant said...

Losing the Supreme Court is a political failure of spectacular proportion.

Anonymous said...

If that indeed happens, it may call for a re-vote by the legislature.

Brian Sheppard said...

Can anyone comment on how absentee votes might tip things one way or the other?

Anonymous said...

what about absentee ballots? will they come into play?

Anonymous said...

When I worked as a poll worker in 2008, we ran the absentee ballots through the machine immediately after the polls closed, so those results were filed along with the rest of the polling location. I'm not sure, but I suspect most other precincts handle it that way, as well.

Blake said...

Andrew Leonard at Salon.com wrote "As of noon, Wisconsin time, the AP was reporting that Kloppenburg has a 224 vote lead, and nearly all absentee ballots have been counted"; however, I haven't found the AP story he's talking about myself yet. A Journal-Sentinel blog post confirms that for Milwaukee at least.

illusory tenant said...

Thanks. I think those were rumors flying around last night that there were still sacks of ballots in MKE County uncounted. Seems as though everything's in at this point.

Anonymous said...

JS now says:

"Most votes were counted Tuesday and the early hours of Wednesday, but a few precincts were not tallied until later Wednesday. Kennedy said absentee and military ballots should have been included in all those counts, but in a news conference he stressed that discrepancies in totals are likely to arise."


AKen said...

"IOW I wasn't just guessing. Waukesha County could not save Prosser."

Huh. Well, shit. Damn.

illusory tenant said...

My sentiments exactly.