Gilbert: Five of the six districts in play Tuesday are clearly GOP-leaning in their makeup. That's no surprise. These are all Senate seats held by Republicans in a terrible GOP year (2008). The GOP advantage isn't huge. It's not big enough to make these districts "safe" for Republicans. But it's real.
Win or lose, that is the proper context for these races. Two is a victory, three shakes the earth.
"But Democrats are running “uphill” in five of the six elections Tuesday, trying to capture districts that are more Republican than the state as a whole in their partisan makeup. In order to overcome that disadvantage, they have to win the turnout battle, carry independents or both."
And that, my friends, is the money quote. So, if Illy-T is correct when he stated earlier that there are few people sitting on the fence in the recalls, then those less than vulnerable Republican incumbents, unfortunately, will more than likely hold serve. My hope, and I'm sorry to say is but a faint pulse (just trying to be realistic), is that those independents who voted Walker will take out their frustrations on his minions, I mean, supporters.
I remain mindful of the surge liberal voters demonstrated for Kloppenburg between February and April in several of the most conservative districts in the State, where her support increased by up to 15%. It wasn't isolated cases either; there were a whole load of counties involved. I've never seen anyone else mention that trend, yet it's pretty damn significant. If it can be extended only marginally today, the Dems can pull it off.
We all have our hopes set on the Democrats winning. Walker and the Republicans can no longer claim that they've been given a clear mandate and they know they are no longer safe regardless of the the outcome, That in itself is worth it's weight in gold.
NW MKE could be critical and from what I saw, massive ground game out there today. Turnout should definitely be higher than in Sup Court race. How much -- I don't know.
I wonder how she would deal with the problem in the following link.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bootsandsabers.com/index.php/weblog/permalink/wisconomics/
Republicans in Madison balanced the state budget ...
ReplyDeleteQuite an accomplishment, considering the constitution requires it.
Gilbert: Five of the six districts in play Tuesday are clearly GOP-leaning in their makeup. That's no surprise. These are all Senate seats held by Republicans in a terrible GOP year (2008). The GOP advantage isn't huge. It's not big enough to make these districts "safe" for Republicans. But it's real.
ReplyDeleteWin or lose, that is the proper context for these races. Two is a victory, three shakes the earth.
Quite an accomplishment
ReplyDeleteAny monkey with an abacus can divide by two.
Come to think of it when "Republicans in Madison" spend so much time violating the constitution the occasional compliance is cause for bragging.
ReplyDelete"But Democrats are running “uphill” in five of the six elections Tuesday, trying to capture districts that are more Republican than the state as a whole in their partisan makeup. In order to overcome that disadvantage, they have to win the turnout battle, carry independents or both."
ReplyDeleteAnd that, my friends, is the money quote. So, if Illy-T is correct when he stated earlier that there are few people sitting on the fence in the recalls, then those less than vulnerable Republican incumbents, unfortunately, will more than likely hold serve. My hope, and I'm sorry to say is but a faint pulse (just trying to be realistic), is that those independents who voted Walker will take out their frustrations on his minions, I mean, supporters.
I remain mindful of the surge liberal voters demonstrated for Kloppenburg between February and April in several of the most conservative districts in the State, where her support increased by up to 15%. It wasn't isolated cases either; there were a whole load of counties involved. I've never seen anyone else mention that trend, yet it's pretty damn significant. If it can be extended only marginally today, the Dems can pull it off.
ReplyDeleteIT--I was not trying to be obtuse, just measured. Thanks for listening, as always!
ReplyDeleteNot at all. I hear ya.
ReplyDeleteWe all have our hopes set on the Democrats winning. Walker and the Republicans can no longer claim that they've been given a clear mandate and they know they are no longer safe regardless of the the outcome,
ReplyDeleteThat in itself is worth it's weight in gold.
NW MKE could be critical and from what I saw, massive ground game out there today. Turnout should definitely be higher than in Sup Court race. How much -- I don't know.
ReplyDelete9:13 p.m.--Doesn't look good thus far...unless the precincts coming in late are heavily Democrat.
ReplyDeletewww.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/127331193.html
So, a net gain of two seats. Is it truly a victory??? Not to say I was against the recalls...but let the spin begin.
ReplyDeletecognidissidence.blogspot.com/2011/08/we-havent-hit-rock-bottom-yet.html
When did the spin ever end? Anyway, congratulations Governor Schultz.
ReplyDelete