tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2506514005426983269.post7299867804012177076..comments2023-10-28T08:02:44.565-05:00Comments on illusory tenant: The "Butler list"illusory tenanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08524761974822871419noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2506514005426983269.post-51830567724755250392008-03-23T12:32:00.000-05:002008-03-23T12:32:00.000-05:00I don't want this to be a game of gotcha. But the ...I don't want this to be a game of gotcha. But the fact is, the higher the expectation you have of someone, the greater the disappointment when they fall short. I expect a lot from Professor Esenberg, whose insights are typically sharp and challenging. But in this instance he has not fulfilled his considerable potential.<BR/><BR/>Professor Esenberg <A HREF="http://sharkandshepherd.blogspot.com/2008/03/but-whos-right.html" REL="nofollow">initially hedged his bets</A>, though he clearly thought that McBride's was a worthy effort. After a bit of back-and-forth, he <A HREF="https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=20692053&postID=2389154038471545547" REL="nofollow">eventually revealed his hand: "It seems clear that the Butler campaign has cooked their numbers."</A> It is on that claim of intentional manipulation of the data that Professor Esenberg comes to grief. Not only did iT's exemplary data-drilling show that <I>McBride</I> is the one who got it wrong, it was <I>never</I> clear that the Butler campaign was massaging the data. This was a mess to begin with: raw data, unclear methodology, no control of variables, no known definitions. A number of individuals (not least iT) attempted to warn the professor away from McBride's pitchfork brigade, but to no avail.<BR/><BR/>All that said, Professor Esenberg's <A HREF="http://sharkandshepherd.blogspot.com/2008/03/illusory-tenant-thinks-he-has-key-to.html" REL="nofollow">most recent post</A> is, IMHO, exemplary in its analysis (putting aside a revisit of that nettlesome numbers thing). I do wish that had been his initial post, and the major thrust of subsequent ones, on the subject. Maybe next time ...William Tyrolerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03964907089960326249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2506514005426983269.post-3551208456384197832008-03-22T23:15:00.000-05:002008-03-22T23:15:00.000-05:00There is a new spin on these numbers everytime I v...<I>There is a new spin on these numbers everytime I visit here.</I><BR/><BR/>"Spin" is a Wittgensteinian imperative, and therefore something that you yourself engage in on a fairly regular basis, so I can't take that remark too seriously.<BR/><BR/>The only thing new is that I reverse-engineered the 70% figure to determine that the figures count convictions. Where a conviction wasn't reversed, you expect Butler to count it as reversing a conviction?<BR/><BR/>I didn't notice either McBride or McIlheran attempting to determine what the numbers actually represent <I>before</I> leaping madly to their preordained conclusions, did you?<BR/><BR/>Maybe it was about time somebody did.<BR/><BR/>It's not the greatest document in the world, and I certainly wouldn't have prepared it or released it as it is, but the figures are based on convictions, which is as good an indicator as any.<BR/><BR/>It's certainly a hell of a lot more illuminating than accusing Butler of lying wouldn't you say?illusory tenanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08524761974822871419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2506514005426983269.post-60123166224609793252008-03-22T22:49:00.000-05:002008-03-22T22:49:00.000-05:00This makes no sense. The list of 70 cases that McB...This makes no sense. The list of 70 cases that McBride put up and which I have no reason to believe did not come from the Butler campaign breaks down cases in which the campaign claims that he ruled in favor of the state versus those that he ruled in favor of the defendants. Some of them have nothing to do with upholding (or vacating) a criminal conviction. Some are not even, strictly speaking, criminal cases although I don't criticize them for that.<BR/><BR/>The list is supposed to show that he ruled in favor of the state and against the "defendant/inmate" 70% of the time. That's just not true. <BR/><BR/>There is a new spin on these numbers everytime I visit here. Maybe the easiest thing to do is just admit they aren't right.Rick Esenberghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07280070509167910367noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2506514005426983269.post-49793453120888594012008-03-22T19:32:00.000-05:002008-03-22T19:32:00.000-05:00Thanks once again, Counsellor. I, too, was really ...Thanks once again, Counsellor. I, too, was really hoping that Prof. Esenberg wouldn't jump to their defense. I even warned him.illusory tenanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08524761974822871419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2506514005426983269.post-52768211914153454452008-03-22T19:28:00.000-05:002008-03-22T19:28:00.000-05:00Excellent catch (deconstructing the Celello releas...Excellent catch (deconstructing the Celello release, not googling 69 and JMc). My refrigerator doesn't hold enough Guinness Stout to have gotten me through the effort required to drill down that far into the data. Hat's off to iT.<BR/><BR/>The onus is now on McBride and McIlheran to apologize and withdraw their overheated claim or show just how iT's wrong. (And no, the one apparent lowly mistake -- Raye -- won't cut it; that's what we like to call an outlier.) I'm sorry to say that Professor Esenberg, for whom I have great respect, must count himself among that number and defend or retract his claim that Butler's campaign cooked data. As we also like to say, lie down with dogs, get up with fleas.William Tyrolerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03964907089960326249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2506514005426983269.post-31620042761515960232008-03-22T18:40:00.000-05:002008-03-22T18:40:00.000-05:00Your blog is now the number one hit when you Googl...Your blog is now the number one hit when you Google "69" and "Jessica McBride".AutismNewsBeathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07067342515765043878noreply@blogger.com